Decking demand has stayed strong even as the housing market cooled through 2018. Builders had enjoyed two years of healthy margins on new homes, then watched lumber and panel prices crash in the fourth quarter as overstuffed inventory lost value and new-home prices leveled off. The decking business kept moving because it draws from remodeling as well as new construction. The Wells Fargo construction industry forecast shows the same resilience across the supply chain, with equipment rental demand staying strong through the year. For deck contractors the practical questions are simpler: what will cedar cost this season, how much of the premium belongs to composite, and where does imported hardwood fit in the bid.
Why Deck Building Holds Up When Housing Slows
Deck construction rests on two demand legs. New home builders add decks to move inventory, and remodeling homeowners replace aging decks or add outdoor living space. When new-home price growth stalls, the replacement market keeps crews booked. Wholesalers confirmed that deck building and new home construction both remain strong, and the January jobs report added over 300,000 positions to the U.S. economy, which feeds activity across the private sector.
Two Demand Streams Keep Crews Busy
- New construction: decks as standard features in move-up homes, often specified at plan stage.
- Replacement and renovation: decks 10 to 15 years old with failing boards, rusty fasteners, and wobbly railings.
- Outdoor living additions: patios, screened porches, and multi-level decks tied to kitchen and entertainment remodels.
Residential crews are not the only ones busy. Commercial and multi-family projects specify metal floor decking systems that support concrete slabs, a different product family from wood and composite decks but part of the same broad deck market. A builder who understands both can bid residential replacements and commercial podium work without re-learning the trade.
Seasonality shapes the calendar. Deck work peaks between April and October in most of the country, which means crews stack projects into a six-month window and idle in winter. Builders who line up replacement work in early spring and price it before the rush capture the best material availability, because cedar and composite supply tightens exactly when demand peaks.
Cedar, Composite, and Hardwood Price Outlook
Wholesaler forecasts point to price stability in cedar decking, modest increases in composites, and eventual increases in exotic hardwoods from South America and Southeast Asia. Canadian cedar prices climbed through most of last year, which pushed deck builders toward composite and hardwood options. For 2019 the picture is more balanced, with most movement expected in the second quarter.
What Drives Each Material Category
| Material | 2019 Price Outlook | Main Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Western red cedar | Stable | Supply caught up after 2018 increases |
| Composite | Modest increase, mostly Q2 | Resin costs and steady demand |
| Ipe and tropical hardwoods | Increase expected | Log shortages, bad weather, demand |
| Softwood lumber and panels | Back to 2018 levels | Inventory glut from Q4 crash |
The outdoor living trend that lifts decks also lifts adjacent markets. Outdoor kitchen equipment sales grew through the same period, and homeowners who build a deck often follow with a grill island, bar seating, and lighting. Each add-on changes the deck design: larger spans, heavier load points, and dedicated circuits for appliances.
Installed cost per square foot gives the client a usable comparison. Pressure-treated pine runs the lowest entry price but needs annual maintenance. Western red cedar lands mid-range and ages to a natural gray if left unsealed. Composite boards run roughly two to three times the material cost of treated pine, with most of that difference recovered over time through lower upkeep. Ipe and other tropical hardwoods sit at the top of the range, and their density makes them harder to cut, drill, and fasten, which raises labor time on every board. The gap between materials narrows once labor is included, because fastening and cutting time differs by board type.
How Material Costs Shape the Deck Bid
A deck bid written in January can look wrong by April. Cedar holds steady, composite moves up a few points in the second quarter, and hardwood shipments carry freight and sourcing uncertainty. The fix is to build price movement into the estimate rather than absorb it.
Budgeting for Price Swings
- Price cedar and composite at bid time and date the quote.
- Add allowances for hardwood, which moves with log supply and weather.
- Include escalation language for projects with long lead times.
- Verify material availability before promising a start date.
A deck is only as stable as what sits under it. Building a strong foundation matters as much for a low-level deck as for a house, and foundation work is often the first line item cut when budgets tighten. Keep the footing schedule in the bid even when the client asks to trim costs elsewhere.
A worked example shows the risk. A 400-square-foot deck with $6,000 in material and $4,500 in labor carries about $1,050 in margin at a 10 percent target. A composite price move of 5 percent on the material line erases $300 of that margin before a single board is cut. Escalation language and dated quotes move that risk back to the contract instead of the crew.
Composite and Hardwood Alternatives to Cedar
Rising cedar prices pushed more builders toward composite decking, which trades a higher upfront price for lower maintenance. Composite boards do not split, resist moisture, and hold color longer than treated pine, which makes them attractive for rental properties and homeowners who will not stain every other year.
Composite Board Considerations
- Hidden fastener systems cut installation time and eliminate visible screw lines.
- Capped composite resists mold and fading better than uncapped versions.
- Expansion gaps matter in hot climates; follow the manufacturer spacing chart.
Hardwood Species and Sourcing
Exotic hardwoods such as ipe from South America and meranti and balau from Southeast Asia offer density and durability that softwoods cannot match. Sourcing takes longer, and price moves with log shortages, bad weather, and demand. For crews that install tropical species, knowing how durable mahogany decking is across those species changes the maintenance promises you can make to a client.
Installation differs by species. Cedar and composite cut cleanly with standard carbide blades, while ipe demands carbide-tipped tooling, pre-drilling at fasteners, and stainless or coated screws to avoid black streaking around the holes. Densities above 60 pounds per cubic foot also change fastener spacing and joist spacing calculations. A crew that quotes hardwood like softwood will lose money on blade wear and rework.
Labor Costs Are Rising With the Market
Material prices are only half the story. The construction industry unemployment rate sat at 6.3 percent during the first half of 2018, then fell back to levels last seen during the housing boom. The Labor Department quits rate, the share of workers who leave jobs voluntarily because they expect to find new ones easily, hit 2.5 percent in March and April, the highest since early 2008. In manufactured housing, plants struggle to hold crews even at $14 to $18 an hour.
Reading the Labor Market Signals
- Low unemployment means experienced deck crews can pick jobs; expect scheduling pressure in peak season.
- A high quits rate signals wage competition; budget for raises to hold key carpenters.
- Tighter immigration enforcement removes a labor pool the industry has long relied on.
Pew Research estimates that undocumented workers account for about 13 percent of construction workers, with shares far higher in trades such as brick and masonry. Builders who plan around labor availability, not just material cost, protect their schedules.
Crew retention follows the same logic as material pricing. Deck builders who pay at the top of the local range, offer steady hours across seasons, and train apprentices hold their best carpenters when the market tightens. In a market where workers change jobs freely, the contractor with a full calendar and a reputation for paying on time wins the bidding war for labor.
Decking Design and Code Considerations
Deck design starts with the ledger, the beam layout, and the footing schedule, not the boards. Local codes set joist spans, railing heights, and guard loads, and those numbers drive the material takeoff. A design that skips the permit process risks a redo when the inspector measures guard spacing or post spacing on site.
Common Code Checkpoints
- Joist span tables: species, grade, and spacing determine maximum span.
- Guard height and load: most codes require 36 inches and 200 pounds of concentrated load.
- Footing depth: frost depth varies by region and sets the post hole depth.
- Stair geometry: riser height, tread depth, and handrail requirements.
- Attachment details: the ledger connection to the house is a frequent failure point.
Builders who fold these checkpoints into the bid avoid change orders. The table stakes of a solid deck, foundation, structure, and code compliance cost little at design time and a great deal when added after the fact. Material selection feeds the same decisions; crews that know how durable mahogany decking is can promise realistic maintenance cycles and pick species that fit client expectations. Clients remember the contractor whose deck passes inspection on the first visit.
The market will keep rewarding builders who match material to site conditions and budget. Cedar still works where budgets are tight, composite wins where maintenance matters, and hardwood carries the premium look for clients who pay for it. When an older deck needs attention before the homeowner is ready to replace it, restoring cracked, weathered decking can buy a few more seasons and keep the relationship alive for the eventual rebuild.