The Softwood Lumber Board has approved a strategic plan targeting 2.9 billion board feet of new annual lumber demand in the United States by 2035. The number is not a slogan; it is a data-driven roadmap built around construction segments where wood already holds a strong position, including multifamily housing, attainable and affordable housing, education buildings, offices, and warehouses. For contractors, framers, and material buyers, the plan signals something practical: demand for framing lumber, engineered wood, and mass timber is expected to climb for the next decade, and the supply chain is positioning itself to meet it.
The push mirrors a pattern visible in industry demand for construction equipment, where the most-viewed new products show where contractors are spending. Wood now competes head to head with steel, concrete, and masonry, and the outcome is decided in building codes, project budgets, and framing schedules. Builders who understand where the growth is supposed to come from can make better material decisions today.
Reading the 2.9 Billion Board Foot Target
A board foot is the standard unit for buying lumber: one board foot equals a piece 12 inches wide, 12 inches long, and 1 inch thick, or 144 cubic inches. Framing a typical 2,000 square foot house consumes roughly 14,000 board feet, so 2.9 billion board feet of new annual demand equals the framing for about 207,000 additional homes every year. That scale explains why the plan treats demand growth as an industrial objective rather than a marketing exercise.
The forecasters borrowed a disciplined definition of demand from other engineering fields. In water treatment, chemical oxygen demand and biological oxygen demand are hard numbers that tell an operator exactly what a treatment plant must handle, and the same logic applies to lumber markets. The board screened building segments against criteria such as construction growth, wood’s cost competitiveness, and the feasibility of code changes before setting the 2035 target.
How the Target Was Set
- Segment growth: only categories with sustained construction volume, such as multifamily and warehouses, made the cut.
- Substitution potential: segments where wood can displace steel or concrete at similar or lower cost.
- Code viability: segments where model codes already allow, or could soon allow, taller and larger wood buildings.
- Measurable results: programs tied to metrics the industry can track, such as board feet consumed per project type.
What the Target Means for Buyers
For a lumber buyer, the practical takeaway is procurement stability. Multi-year growth targets give mills confidence to invest in capacity, and that confidence shows up as steadier supply and fewer price spikes during seasonal peaks. Buyers who lock in distributor relationships early tend to ride out volatility better than those who source spot loads.
Segments Driving Wood Consumption
The plan concentrates on five segments where lumber already has a foothold. Multifamily is the largest near-term opportunity: about 9 in 10 low-rise multifamily buildings in North America are wood framed, and five-over-one podiums, wood-framed buildings on a concrete first floor, dominate mid-rise construction in most markets. Attainable and affordable housing depends on wood’s low cost per square foot. Education buildings use wood for gymnasiums and libraries, offices are turning to mass timber for tenant appeal, and warehouses need roof systems that span wide bays quickly.
Why Wood Wins in Each Segment
- Multifamily: light-frame construction runs 10 to 20 percent cheaper than steel or concrete equivalents in most regions and encloses faster.
- Education: exposed wood structures meet acoustics and daylighting goals while keeping budgets in check.
- Offices: mass timber columns and beams cut embodied carbon and attract tenants who market wellness and sustainability.
- Warehouses: parallel chord trusses and glulam beams deliver long spans with fewer columns, which keeps racking layouts flexible.
Supply is already responding to the demand outlook. Producers are committing capital to new capacity, including plans for a new softwood lumber plant that would feed the southern markets where multifamily and warehouse construction are concentrated. When mills announce capacity a decade ahead of need, it is a strong signal that the growth projections are being taken seriously by people who put real money behind them.
How Contractors and Buyers Prepare
None of this demand materializes at the jobsite without a reliable buying process. Contractors who understand lumber yard practices and material planning order in full lifts, schedule deliveries around framing crews, and verify grade stamps before accepting a load. The difference between a smooth framing week and a stalled one is usually decided in the purchasing office, not on the saw.
- Run a detailed takeoff from approved drawings, not estimates, and add a waste factor of 5 to 10 percent for framing lumber.
- Specify grades and species on the order: SPF No. 2 for studs and joists, Douglas fir for high-load members, and engineered products where spans demand them.
- Check moisture content at delivery; lumber above 19 percent moisture invites shrinkage and warping after installation.
- Schedule deliveries in sequence so material sits on site the shortest possible time, reducing theft, weather damage, and job clutter.
| Grade | Typical uses | Relative cost |
|---|---|---|
| Select Structural | Beams, headers, high-stress members | Highest |
| No. 1 | Joists, rafters, long spans | High |
| No. 2 | Studs, plates, blocking, general framing | Standard |
| Stud grade | Wall studs only | Low |
| Utility | Temporary bracing, stakes, low-stress uses | Lowest |
Planning Around Lead Times
Engineered products such as I-joists, LVL headers, and glulam beams carry longer lead times than dimensional lumber because they are manufactured to order. Buyers should place engineered wood orders four to eight weeks ahead of the framing start, while commodity lumber can be sourced in days. Truss plants run on a similar schedule, and their design review step adds time that framing schedules must absorb.
Seasonal timing matters too. Lumber prices historically firm up ahead of the spring build season, so buyers who cover summer needs in late winter often beat the spike. Distributors publish price trends and futures data, and a buyer who reads them can shift purchase timing by weeks without changing the project schedule.
Technology Is Reshaping How Wood Gets Specified
The demand push coincides with a wave of digital tools that change how wood is specified, ordered, and delivered. Takeoff software converts PDF plans into material lists in minutes, and BIM models flag framing conflicts before anything is cut. On the logistics side, digital sourcing has reached the delivery fleet: the same online marketplaces that streamline upfitted work truck sourcing help dealers spec and buy vehicles configured for lumber delivery.
Software That Moves the Needle
- Automated takeoffs: reduce estimating errors and produce itemized lists that match supplier catalogs.
- BIM coordination: catches clashes between framing, MEP rough-ins, and structural steel before the first stud is set.
- Inventory management: dealers that share live stock levels online cut phone-tag time for buyers.
- Delivery tracking: GPS-enabled fleets give contractors arrival windows instead of vague promises.
Where the Industry Still Runs on Paper
Not every link in the chain is digitized. Grade stamps, mill certificates, and treatment tags are still physical documents, and code officials in many jurisdictions still want to see them. The near-term opportunity is not eliminating paper but making the digital handoff between takeoff software, supplier catalogs, and delivery records seamless enough that field crews stop re-keying data.
From Niche to Mainstream: Execution Priorities
The strategy’s working title is From Niche to Mainstream, and it responds directly to intensifying competition from other building materials. Competing campaigns challenge wood’s environmental claims and seek to limit wood products in upcoming building code cycles. The response is coordinated: technical support for designers, advocacy in the code process, and public education about wood’s performance in fire, seismic, and durability tests.
What Code Wins Look Like
Code changes are the highest-leverage wins in the plan. The 2021 International Building Code already permits mass timber buildings up to 18 stories under Type IV-C construction, and each code cycle offers a chance to expand what wood can do. Wood industry advocates treat every public comment period as a campaign, because a single code provision can shift millions of board feet of demand.
Execution also shows up in equipment. At trade shows such as CONEXPO, manufacturers keep advancing pneumatic and oscillatory compaction technology that speeds up site preparation, and the same measuring discipline applies to lumber programs: every initiative carries a metric, a deadline, and an owner. Programs that cannot demonstrate results in industry-relevant terms get cut.
What History Says About Lumber Markets
Lumber markets have been reshaped by policy before. The 1996 Softwood Lumber Agreement restructured cross-border trade and left a lasting imprint on how framing material markets price, source, and hedge lumber, and today’s producers still operate inside that legacy. History also shows that demand programs work best when they align with genuine construction cycles rather than trying to invent demand in shrinking segments.
For builders, the 2035 target is a planning tool. It tells framers which regions and building types will stay busy, tells dealers which product lines to stock, and tells mills where to put the next production line. The most useful response is practical: sharpen takeoffs, build distributor relationships, and track code developments in the segments where you build. Demand growth of this scale will not arrive evenly, and the contractors who position early will be the ones who benefit.