Residential window shipments increased 5.7 percent in 2016, reaching more than 43.2 million units shipped across the country, according to a Window & Door Manufacturers Association study reported by Building Products Digest. National growth is expected to add another 5.6 percent in 2017 before easing to a 4.6 percent pace in 2019. Entry doors, interior flush doors, and stile and rail doors all posted gains in the same period, which makes openings one of the steadiest product categories in residential construction. For builders, the numbers answer a practical question: which products are moving, and how fast. The details matter more than the headline. This breakdown covers the fixtures, fastenings, doors, and windows that drive the category, from raw shipment counts to what the forecasts mean for ordering windows and scheduling installations.
What the 2016 Window Numbers Show
Window demand has grown for several consecutive years, and the 2016 figure of 43.2 million units represents real volume rather than a statistical blip. The 5.7 percent gain followed gains in prior years, and the association forecast calls for 5.6 percent growth in 2017. The pace slows to 4.6 percent in 2019, which still leaves the market expanding at roughly three times the rate of population growth.
| Year | Growth rate | Shipment volume |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 actual | +5.7% | 43.2 million units |
| 2017 forecast | +5.6% | not yet reported |
| 2019 forecast | +4.6% | not yet reported |
Three forces explain the sustained run. Remodeling activity keeps pulling replacement windows, new single-family construction adds volume at the upper end of the market, and tighter energy codes push buyers toward upgraded glazing packages. The same forces that lift new window sales also raise the value of correct installation details, including weatherstripping for windows and doors, which decides how much of that rated performance actually reaches the interior of the house.
How the Forecasts Are Built
Market studies of this type combine manufacturer shipment surveys with building permit data and remodeling spending estimates. The Window & Door Manufacturers Association aggregates responses from producers who account for the majority of U.S. volume, so the percentages track the largest players rather than a broad sample of small shops. Three details matter when reading the numbers:
- Growth rates compound, so a 5.7 percent year followed by 5.6 percent adds roughly 6 million units over two years.
- Forecasts published in mid-2017 reflect orders already booked, which makes them more reliable than long-range projections.
- National averages hide regional swings; permit-heavy metros grow faster than the country as a whole.
Entry Doors Rebound After Two Soft Years
Shipments of side-hinged entry doors increased 6.1 percent in 2016 to 9.7 million units, reversing the decline recorded between 2014 and 2015. The rebound eased concerns that the category had peaked, and the forecast shows annual growth climbing to 5.9 percent in 2017 before settling to a more modest 5.2 percent in 2019.
| Entry door metric | 2016 | 2017 forecast | 2019 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shipments | 9.7 million units | +5.9% | +5.2% |
Entry doors sit at the front of the house, so style choices drive this category as much as volume. Buyers pair new doors with matching sidelites, transoms, and hardware finishes, and the color story of the front elevation often starts with the door and frame. A growing share of specifiers now asks whether black windows are more expensive and which types are available, and the answers shape both material budgets and delivery schedules for the whole opening package.
What Drives Entry Door Volume
The 2014 to 2015 dip in entry door shipments shows how quickly this category responds to housing turnover. When resale volumes stall, door replacements stall with them. When turnover recovers, the rebound shows up in the next quarter of shipment data. Tracking that relationship gives suppliers a leading indicator they can act on before the numbers turn.
Material mix matters for budgeting too. Steel entry doors hold their share in rental and high-traffic applications, fiberglass takes the premium custom work, and wood remains the default where staining is part of the design. Each material carries a different lead time, and the national shipment data does not separate them, so local suppliers remain the best source for mix information.
Interior Doors Split Into Two Growth Stories
Architectural interior flush doors recovered from a decline the previous year by growing 4.5 percent in 2016, with nearly 2.9 million units shipped. Stile and rail doors continued an upward trend with a 6.6 percent increase and nearly 0.44 million units shipped. The two segments are forecast to grow at the same 4 percent pace in 2017, then both settle to 1 percent growth by 2019.
| Segment | 2016 shipments | 2016 growth | 2017 forecast | 2019 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flush doors | 2.9 million units | +4.5% | +4% | +1% |
| Stile and rail doors | 0.44 million units | +6.6% | +4% | +1% |
Flush Doors: The Volume Leader
Flush doors dominate interior volume because they serve residential and light commercial projects alike. Paint-grade interiors, multifamily corridors, and office demising walls all use them, which keeps demand steady even when custom single-family work slows.
When Flush Doors Fit a Project
- Budget-sensitive interiors where paint-grade finishes are standard.
- Multifamily units that need consistent sizing across hundreds of openings.
- Commercial tenant fit-outs with acoustic or fire-rated assemblies.
Stile and Rail: Smaller Base, Faster Run
Stile and rail doors are the specialty side of the category: stained wood faces, panel configurations, and custom sizing. The 6.6 percent growth rate outpaces flush doors, but the base is small, so the segment adds fewer absolute units. Suppliers who stock common stile and rail profiles capture premium margin without carrying a huge inventory.
Whichever segment a job calls for, the installation work follows the same discipline: square the opening, check the jambs, and hang the slab so it closes without binding. The steps used to fix doors and windows in wall openings apply directly to retrofit work where existing framing has moved or settled.
What Drives Demand for Doors and Windows
Behind the year-over-year percentages sit four durable drivers that builders can plan around:
- Energy code pressure. Every update to the energy code raises the minimum performance for glazing, and code cycles create predictable spikes in replacement demand.
- Remodeling volume. Replacement work now accounts for a larger share of window shipments than new construction in most regions.
- Labor availability. Skilled installation crews are the bottleneck; markets with more trained crews absorb more volume.
- Material pricing. Frame material costs swing with commodity cycles, and buyers pull orders forward when prices are expected to rise.
Each driver runs on a different cycle length. Code changes arrive every few years and create a stair-step pattern in demand, remodeling follows the age of the housing stock, labor moves with the construction cycle, and material pricing reacts to global commodity markets. Builders who separate the cycles can predict which factor will bite first.
The Air Leakage Factor
Air leakage is the biggest single source of performance loss in a completed opening, which is why the best-practice sequence for new builds and retrofits alike starts with sealing the shell before the finishes go on. The step-by-step method builders use to air seal windows and doors covers the joints that matter most: the rough opening gap, the sill, and the head.
How Builders and Suppliers Can Use the Forecasts
Order Timing and Lead Times
A market growing at 5 percent per year means manufacturers run near capacity. Standard window orders that used to take four weeks now commonly take six to ten, and custom sizes stretch longer. Builders who order at permit time instead of at rough-in time avoid the worst of the queue.
Regional differences matter as much as the national pace. A builder in a fast-growing metro may face eight-week lead times while a rural market still gets four-week service. Asking the local distributor for actual lead times beats assuming the national forecast applies to every job.
Budgeting for Cost Movement
Growth periods put pressure on frame materials, glass, and hardware. Budgeting a 3 to 5 percent allowance for opening costs protects the job when price increases land mid-project. Suppliers who lock pricing for sixty days give their builder customers a planning advantage.
Field crews can cut waste on the labor side as well. Proper sealing technique closes gaps that caulk misses, and a spray foam gun setup lets crews air seal doors and windows with controlled, consistent beads that save material and callbacks.
Planning the Next Growth Cycle
Three Planning Moves That Pay Off
- Lock in supplier relationships before capacity tightens, and standardize on a limited set of door and window packages.
- Keep installation crews trained on current code requirements so callbacks stay low as volume climbs.
- Watch permit and resale data quarterly to catch regional shifts before the national numbers move.
Growth rates will cool toward 4 to 5 percent by 2019, but the market stays in expansion. Builders who follow those three moves capture more of the volume at better margins. The same logic scales down: a homeowner crew that learns to install garden shed windows and doors correctly gets a weathertight result without a full-size house budget, and the skills carry over to the main structure.